Multi-trait selection for nutritional and physiological quality of cacao genotypes in irrigated and non-irrigated environments.

Water is a scarce, strategic resource and the most important input for economic development, especially in agricultural countries such as Brazil. Cocoa production is directly related to water availability, and, as climate changes, selecting drought-tolerant genotypes is vital to keep cacao crops sustainable. Here, we evaluated cacao genotypes under irrigated and water-stressed conditions and selected drought-tolerant ones based on nutritional and physiological traits. Thirty-nine genotypes were monitored for three years for agronomic traits and higher fruit yield. After this evaluation, the 18 most promising genotypes were evaluated in a randomized block design, under a 2 (with and without irrigation)  ×  18 (genotypes) factorial arrangement, with three replicates and five plants per plot. We evaluated seven physiological and 11 nutritional traits, selecting genotypes based on the Genotype-by-Trait Biplot approach. Significant effects (p < 0.05) were observed for the nutritional traits N, P, Mg, S, Zn, Cu, Mn and for the physiological traits CO2 assimilation rate (A), stomatal conductance (gs), transpiration (E), intercellular and atmospheric CO2 concentrations (Ci/Ca), intrinsic water use efficiency (A/gs), instantaneous water use efficiency (A/E), and instantaneous carboxylation efficiency (A/Ci), as determined by analysis of variance. The genotype  ×  irrigation treatment interaction was significant (p < 0.05) for the traits A, gs, and E. Genotypes CP 41, CP 43, and CCN 51 exhibited superior performance for both nutritional and physiological traits (A, gs, and E). In the irrigated environment, CP 41 showed superiority in traits such as P, A/E, A/gs, Mn, S, and Zn. Conversely, under non-irrigated conditions, CP 43 exhibited better performance in nutritional properties, specifically Mn, Mg, and Zn. Notably, in both irrigated and non-irrigated environments, CCN 51 excelled in key physiological traits, including A/Ci, A/E, and A/gs. This robust performance across diverse conditions suggests that these three genotypes possess physiological mechanisms to endure water-stressed conditions. Our research can generate valuable insights into these genotypes informing suitable choices for cocoa cultivation, especially in the context of global climate change.

GIS-FA: an approach to integrating thematic maps, factor-analytic, and envirotyping for cultivar targeting.

KEY MESSAGE: We propose an "enviromics" prediction model for recommending cultivars based on thematic maps aimed at decision-makers. Parsimonious methods that capture genotype-by-environment interaction (GEI) in multi-environment trials (MET) are important in breeding programs. Understanding the causes and factors of GEI allows the utilization of genotype adaptations in the target population of environments through environmental features and factor-analytic (FA) models. Here, we present a novel predictive breeding approach called GIS-FA, which integrates geographic information systems (GIS) techniques, FA models, partial least squares (PLS) regression, and enviromics to predict phenotypic performance in untested environments. The GIS-FA approach enables: (i) the prediction of the phenotypic performance of tested genotypes in untested environments, (ii) the selection of the best-ranking genotypes based on their overall performance and stability using the FA selection tools, and (iii) the creation of thematic maps showing overall or pairwise performance and stability for decision-making. We exemplify the usage of the GIS-FA approach using two datasets of rice [Oryza sativa (L.)] and soybean [Glycine max (L.) Merr.] in MET spread over tropical areas. In summary, our novel predictive method allows the identification of new breeding scenarios by pinpointing groups of environments where genotypes demonstrate superior predicted performance. It also facilitates and optimizes cultivar recommendations by utilizing thematic maps.

ProbBreed: a novel tool for calculating the risk of cultivar recommendation in multienvironment trials.

Neglecting genotype-by-environment interactions in multienvironment trials (MET) increases the risk of flawed cultivar recommendations for growers. Recent advancements in probability theory coupled with cutting-edge software offer a more streamlined decision-making process for selecting suitable candidates across diverse environments. Here, we present the user-friendly ProbBreed package in R, which allows breeders to calculate the probability of a given genotype outperforming competitors under a Bayesian framework. This article outlines the package's basic workflow and highlights its key features, ranging from MET model fitting to estimating the per se and pairwise probabilities of superior performance and stability for selection candidates. Remarkably, only the selection intensity is required to compute these probabilities. By democratizing this complex yet efficient methodology, ProbBreed aims to enhance decision-making and ultimately contribute to more accurate cultivar recommendations in breeding programs.